UFC 329: McGregor still underdog as return gets closer
The MMA world’s attention may still be on the UFC Freedom 250 card from the White House lawn, but it’s now just a few short weeks from another equally seismic event: the return of Connor McGregor.
When The Notorious One steps back into the octagon on 11th July at UFC 329, it will be almost five years to the day since his last fight. That came in 2021 against Dustin Poirier at UFC 264, and ended with McGregor’s leg brutally snapping as he stepped back during the closing seconds of the first round.
His return will be against Max Holloway, a fighter who McGregor has faced before in very different circumstances. When the pair first met in 2013 it was as two raw up-and-comers on the prelim for Fight Night 26. Now, the two of future Hall of Famers will be headlining.
McGregor, though, finds himself in the unusual position of being underdog. He’s only been the unfancied fighter twice before in his career, and this time he’s a long way behind. Sportsbooks have him around +240, while you can use a Kalshi promo code to back him at around 31 cents (+300 equivalent before fees).
While McGregor has been his usual brash self about his chances, it seems that bettors are less convinced.
Active Holloway the heavy favorite
While McGregor has been away from the octagon, Holloway has been busy forging a reputation as one of the UFC’s elite fighters. He won the BMF title after knocking out Justin Gaethje at UFC 300, holding it for nearly two years, and has been one of the promotion’s regular star attractions.
Holloway is known for his boxing, characterized by an insanely high work rate. He holds the record for the most significant strikes landed both in a single fight, and in an entire career. McGregor will happily keep the fight upright, but there are serious questions whether he’ll be able to withstand the flurry of punches that Holloway will throw.
Although Holloway has stayed active, he’s hardly been dominant during McGregor’s sabbatical. He’s gone 5-3 over the last five years, losing two of his last three fights. He also took nearly a year off as he recovered from a hand injury suffered against Dustin Poirier in July 2025 and, when he did return in March, lost via unanimous decision to Charles Oliveira.
Holloway won’t have the ring rust problem that McGregor has. However, he is far from in unstoppable form. If McGregor still has the punching power that has seen him win 19 fights by KO/TKO, Holloway could be vulnerable.
Bettors unsure which McGregor will show up
McGregor claims that his five years away from fighting has left his body fully healed and mind sharp, intending to come back as an improved fighter. He won the pair’s first fight 13 years ago and, with Holloway struggling for form, is confident he can repeat.
The five years that McGregor has been out of the octagon haven’t been kind on him, though. He’s found himself in the headlines for all the wrong reasons, and was forced to pull out of his original comeback fight in 2024 due to a broken toe. Ring rust, injury susceptibility, and not being regularly tested in the ring as he once was are real concerns.
If McGregor can come back at his previous elite level then Holloway will have a fight on his hands. Doubly so if The Notorious One’s claims that he’s healthier and more focused than ever before turn out to be true. A lot of casual money has already been placed hoping that the free swinging McGregor of years ago comes back.
The more serious sports bettors are unconvinced, though. Five years is a long time to be out of action, and McGregor is jumping straight back into elite competition without any kind of warm up fight. This is reflected in Kalshi trades only giving him around a 30% chance of victory.
Everyone will have to wait until UFC 329 to see just who is right.
