How Bad Ilia Topuria is, and When Can He Return to the Octagon?

Ilia Topuria lost. His belt is gone, his undefeated record is no more, and the aura of invincibility is no longer existent. At UFC Freedom 250 Justin Gaethje won a trench war vs. Ilia Topuria. The Georgian-Spanish fighter left the octagon after his corner threw in a towel after a fourth round of exchange that was never before seen in MMA. Gaethje destroyed Ilia’s ego, confidence, but most of all, his face. Topuria’s first loss was massive not just because it was his first professional defeat, but more to the manner in which it was executed. 

When it was all said and done in the aftermath of UFC Freedom 250, Gaethje celebrated his victory, while Topuria was taken into a hospital. The full extent of his injuries was not well known in the hours and days after the bout, but now, a week later, more is known about what happened to him. Many fans are already excitingly awaiting his return and are hoping for quick recovery and a return on the path of glory. 

While fans’ wishes are one thing, the current situation regarding Ilia Topuria doesn’t look like one that will be resolved shortly. The doctors are still on the clock trying to estimate when it would be possible for El Matador to come back into the octagon. If you are eager to go through exclusive UFC picks and predictions that will have Ilia Topuria on the UFC card you will have to wait a tad bit longer. 

The Extent of Ilia Topuria’s Injuries

From the moment Ilia Topuria was taken to a hospital, news outlets were all over the place trying to figure out just how damaged he got during the UFC Freedom 250. The first news that we got was that both of his orbital bones were broken. As far as sports such as MMA goes, facial injuries are the worst, and take the longest to heal. After the initial examination, the judgement is that Ilia will need a lot of time to get to full strength. A piece of good news is the fact that he will not require surgery. While he was not looking well when the fight ended, it’s nice to know that his rehabilitation process has already begun. 

What’s worrisome at the moment is that it is a well known fact just how competitive Topuria is and there’s a chance that he will attempt to rush things and get to the octagon and regain his honour as quickly as possible. That’s not in accordance with his injuries that require a slow healing process, a lot of patience, and caution. For doctors, the most important part is not for Topuria to get back to fighting but to preserve the full extent of his vision. In the long run, the Spanish-Georgian fighter should put his overall well being in the first place, and not his MMA career. 

For all of you who are not familiar with the term orbit, and what it signifies, we need to tell you that we’re not talking about a single bone. The orbit is a set of bones that protect the eyeball and it consists of several skull bones, most notably, maxillary, ethmoid, frontal, zygomatic, and sphenoid bones. Anatomically, they serve as the safety box for the eyeball. As we said, while most of these bones suffered fractures, none of them were displaced, meaning that no surgical procedure was necessary for Topuria to get better. Of course, with injuries such as these, you should never be too optimistic when it comes to the time that it requires to heal. 

As stated, there is no need for a surgery, which means that Ilia’s athletic career is not in jeopardy. At some point in the aftermath of the UFC Freedom 250 event, many fans and pundits contemplated an UFC future where Ilia Topuria is no longer a pro fighter. With the knowledge that the injuries as these can be healed on their own, without taking a surgery to get better, most of us, Topuria included, can get back to hoping for his quick and easy recovery. Not having this operation is not a decision that the doctors made having in mind Ilia’s MMA career, but as a matter of fact, it is medically correct to avoid any unnecessary risks that a surgery would take for a wound that the body knows how to take care of itself. 

Three Stages of Recovery 

Hearing that Ilia Topuria will not have to undergo a surgery was received with a sigh of relief from his fan base. Yet, this type of injury is not to be taken lightly. Doctors are adamant that there is a structured path to recovery that needs to be followed to a point, in order to both bones heal fully and correctly. It will be a lengthy process that requires patience, caution from the patient and those caring for him, and above all else time. Time is of the essence. 

Of course, the recovery can be quicker or slower. During the entirety of the recovery process, Topuria will be closely monitored by his doctors. It is possible that some setbacks are found on the way, and the same chance exists that he will recover faster than the current timeline suggests. It will all start with a phase called acute bone healing. Between the fractures of the broken orbital bones a new bone tissue will be formed. During this period Topuria will be fully forbidden from contact activities. Full focus will be put on lowering the bruising around the eyes and swelling will have to be put under control during the first weeks of the recovery. During this phase he will be monitored through CT scans for the healing process of his facial bone structure, and by an ophthalmological expert to ensure that his eye movement, visual fields, and intraocular pressure are all in order. It is a priority for both El Matador and his doctors that the orbital bones heal properly and return to their natural position. 

From the moment the bones are properly healed, Ilia can get back to training on a lighter regime. At that point he will be able to exercise with physical contact. Of course, he will still not be allowed to receive blows or any form of contact to this head. Here is where a competitive athlete such as Ilia needs to avoid feeling false security about his health, as it is possible that he feels fully healed and ready for some light sparring, while the reality is that his bones haven’t yet finished their remodeling process. 

The last part of the recovery is where things get different for your ordinary Joe, and a competitive fighter such as Ilia Topuria. Everything needs to be perfect for Ilia to get a green light from his medical team to participate in the sport he has dedicated his life to. His bones will have to be back to their ideal, pre injury form, his vision will have to function perfectly, and eye movement needs to be without restrictions and symmetrical. The main issue here could be an early return to contact training that could damage the bones further and even displace the fragments of the bones, which would then, at the back end of his recovery make Topuria an urgent patient for the surgical department. 

Luckily for all fans of Ilia Topuria, the rules in MMA regarding facial injuries are way stricter than in any other sport. Ili will not be allowed to return early, and that’s for the bets. We’re talking about what’s best for the fighter, for the company, and in the end for millions of fans that El Matador has gathered over the years and who are now worried for him. While everyone is looking for a swift recovery of one of the UFCs most valued fighter on the current roster, the exact timeline of his return cannot be envisioned right now. It depends on plenty of factors such as the appearance and disappearance of double vision, secondary displacement of bone fractures that could appear on secondary CT scans, and of course how fast can his swelling and bruising withdraw. It will all be better known when the number of medical evaluations grows over the next couple of months. 

Will There be A Comeback in 2026?

When an undefeated fighter such as Ilia Topuria receives his first defeat, everyone has only one thought on their mind, when will he return for a rematch? While everyone would love to see Topuria vs. Gaethje 2, the chances are this will not happen in 2026. Most medical experts agree that Topuria should not rush his return under any circumstances. We will probably see Gaethje fight a few more times before Ilia is even prepared to step his foot into the octagon. Also, UFC will probably be looking to throw a lower ranked fighter at him, to ease his return. Two consecutive defeats would signal a decline in Topuria’s skill, which many already are suggesting after the beating he has received from Justin Gaethje. 

From a clearly medical standpoint, rushing Ilia to fight before his face is fully healed could have an effect on his ability to live a normal life and not only on his MMA career. That’s why no one should expect for Ilia to be back fighting in 2026. The timeline of his return is closer to this time next year, as by then he could be fully healed and in prime physical shape to take on any opponent. The most optimistic predictions suggest that he could be fighting as early as in the first quarter of 2027. While we’re more than eager to see whether El Matador is back to his best, or his first defeat would lead to his fighting demise, doctors are suggesting that we as fans also need to be patient. When it comes to a sport such as MMA where the head is the most targeted part of the body, rushing a recovery of injuries that Ilia Topuria suffered is a sure fire way to damage everything you’ve built over the years. 

Who Will Ilia Fight Next? 

There’s a bumpy road ahead of Ilia Topuria. He needs to take good care of his recovery and come back at 100%. After the beating he received from Justin Gaethje, everyone knows that Topuria will love to get back into the octagon with the Highlight, and get his revenge. Yet, the chances are this is not the most likely scenario. After all, Justin Gaethje is 37 years of age, and while he was contemplating retiring not so long ago, now as a champion his payday is on the horizon, and he will take advantage of it by fighting as soon as possible. There’s a chance that Gaethje enters the octagon twice until Topuria is not yet recovered. 

As far as Ilia goes, he knows that recovery comes first. Yet, he was quick to congratulate Gaethje on his win, with a message that they will have a rematch. It is possible that UFC will make it possible for Topuria to get back to contention fighting his last opponent. As far as the fans go, the wild predictions are all over the place. Those who are closest to getting the opportunity to face El matador are Arman Tsarukyan and Paddy Pimblett. It is a well known fact that Dana White is no fan of Arman, so the one closer to having the honours is Paddy the Baddy. In addition to these two, many other names are thrown into contention. The winner of the bout between Max Holloway and Conor McGregor is also on the table. Israel Adesanya believes that McGregor vs. Topuria would be a fight that could feed nations. While The Notorious still has plenty of fans and probably the biggest draw in the UFC it remains to be seen whether he still has it where it takes, in the octagon.