How to Bet on UFC Fights: Odds, Markets and Strategy Explained

Betting on MMA is fun. Yet, it is also stressful. UFC is the pinnacle of MMA, and there, betting on MMA goes up a few notches. Why? Well, due to the quality of fighters, who after years of preparation, have the ability to end any scuffle in a matter of nanoseconds. This is a high variance sport, and that’s what makes it so interesting for many of us to wager on it. Before betting on MMA, you need to learn about its markets, fighters on the card, and remember that skill makes all the difference, but a lucky shot erases any difference in skill fighters can have over their opponents. 

As far as combat sports go, there are little if any that can top MMA as far as interest in betting on it goes. It is so different from your regular sports such as basketball, football, or tennis you usually wager on. It is an individual sport, relying on a single person like no other. There’s no spreads, and no classic handicaps engrained in sports betting. It is a volatile sport, despite the odds often telling you a full story. 

Reading The UFC Odds

Depending on the part of the world where you live, odds can be represented in a different manner. What’s important to remember is that in its essence, MMA is mostly a sport you will see through moneyline. At the end of the day, in the UFC, the winner takes the spoils, and so wagering on who wins is the only way to go. Odds are probabilities of a fighter given to him as his chance of winning a single bout. They always tell the same story, but might appear to be a lot different depending on how you look at them. Here’s how to better understand the odds.

First, you have the American moneyline odds. They’re usually represented as +150 or -200 as examples. When you have a + next to a number it means the following: Wagering an amount of $100 will result in a $150 win on our example of +150. When there’s a – sign, the story is different. You will need to wager $200 to receive an amount of $100 on our example of -200 odds. Also, you could take this week’s UFC odds and picks as an example: a heavy favorite, Magomed Ankalaev priced at -535 means you’d need to stake $535 to win $100. That’s a sure-fire bet, but as we said, a single lucky hit in the chin, and your wager might be gone. 

Next, we have decimal odds. At the upcoming UFC Fight Night – Ankalaev vs. Guskov, the odds on a bout between Steve Erceg and Ramazan Temirov are set at 1.90 and 1.91. This is where simple math goes into play. You take $100 x 1.90 = $190. When the odds are below 2.00, it signals that you have a favourite on your hands. Yet, in the example we provided, it is clear that we have an evened out bout. This match can be won by any fighter and bouts as this one are what makes UFC so fun to wager on. Also, as we said, it is a stressful affair too. 

Behind American, and decimal odds, we have fractional. They are seen as a profit to stake ratio. Let’s say we give you 6/4 odds. It means that for every $4 wagered you will receive $6 in reward. The easiest way to go around fractional odds, if you cannot understand them from the get go, is to turn them into decimal odds. This is the formula: (6 ÷ 4) + 1 = 2.50.

Lastly, you might encounter prediction-market price as odds many love to use when wagering. Let’s use $0.40 as an example. What makes this type of odds so simple is the fact we’re talking about a Yes/No contract trades. It is a trade between zero cents and $1. You win $1 each time you get the outcome right. The price you pay is the probability of the event playing out as you wager. So $0.40 translates to 40% of probability. 

Now that we went over the odds, let’s see how the UFC betting markets move. 

The UFC Betting Markets

Even as an individual sport, MMA markets and UFC especially, have plenty of similarities with other sports, and with sports betting in general. With that in mind, these are the most popular betting markets as far as UFC goes. 

Moneyline/Odds to Win

The reason why moneyline is so popular is the fact that it is easy to understand. You only need to know a little bit about how UFC works, a world or two about the odds and you’re set to go. All you need to do is to guess the winner. That is all. Let’s use Valter Walker vs. Thomas Petersen as an example. Walker is listed as the favourite with his odds being set at 1.54. So, you need to wager $100 on his win, and if he wins you would land $154. If you bet on American odds, and you pick a fighter who is an -210 underdog, you will need to wager $210 in order to win a clean $100. If this is your first time encountering MMA and UFC wagering, the best route to take is to stay close to moneyline wagers. 

Round Totals or Over/Under Rounds

Once you get a better idea of how UFC operates, you can switch to betting on the number of rounds. This is also a straightforward way to wager on MMA. Let’s say you have a round total of 1.5 set on the duel between Wellington Turman and Islam Dulatov. If you wager under 1.5, it is necessary for the round to end in the middle of the second round at the latest. We’re talking about the 2.30 mark in the second round. If you bet on over 1.5, you only want for fighters to fight over the same mark, and once they’re over 2.30 mark in the second round, you have a winning wager. Of course, what matters when placing bets on over/under on rounds is whether the bout has 3 or 5 rounds.

Point Spread

Usually associated with basketball, point spread is an interesting wager when applied to UFC. It is not as simple as just picking a winner. Instead, it is more like having a handicap. Let’s say you wager on a fighter to win the bout when he has a -3.5 spread. Your wager is an instant win if he manages to win by KO/TKO, submission, disqualification, or if it goes the distance. Yet, the win needs to be recorded by more than 4 points for the wager to land. The points are given by the judges and official scorecards are known once the bout is over. So, if all three judges score the fight 29-28 that’s a lost bet on your side as there’s only three points to share, and you need over 3.5 points. If the scorecards say 29-28 two times, but one says 30-27, you’ve won. 

Prop Betting

Another aspect of MMA and UFC that makes betting on it so interesting are prop bets. With prop bets, the odds go up, but your chances of hitting on the way the fight is going to end go down. This doesn’t have to be the case, as there’s only a few ways a single bout can end. Prop bets include betting on way of win, and there you have KO/TKO/DQ, and there’s submission, and decision. Placing a wager on a fighters win and method of victory is quite common in UFC betting. To make these bets you ought to know the fighters who are entering the octagon, what are their strengths, weaknesses, and overall fighting style. 

Of course, there’s more to prop betting on MMA, as this sport has layers. You could also wager on whether the fight will go the distance, how many takedowns will land in a fight, or if there will be an unanimous decision. 

Parlays & LIve Betting

Just like in most other sports, you can make parlays when you wager on UFC. It’s possible to wager on more than one fight, and to make inter-fight combinations. Also, it is possible to make live bets when the bout begins, in between the rounds when there’s a break. If this is your cup of tea, a fuller rundown of prop bets and live betting, Stake’s guide to betting on UFC walks through each market type in more depth. With everything we’ve said, you now understand that UFC betting markets bring a lot to the world of sports betting, and that you’ve been missing a lot of fun regarding MMA. If you agree, keep on reading as we make a couple predictions for the upcoming UFC Fight Night – Ankalaev vs. Guskov. 

Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov

The main event for the Fight Night was not what it was supposed to be. Khalil Rountree Jr. withdrew due to injury. Bogdan Guskov stepped up as a replacement, and he should be a decent replacement, as he is known as a heavy hitter and in his career he has 13 stoppages, and an 18-3-1 record. All 13 stoppages came in the first round. Despite a solid resume, Ankalaev is a former division champion, and he enters this bout as a favorite. Having experience as a champion means a lot in this sport, despite Big Ank losing his title in the hands of Alex Pereira. The technical kickboxer will be looking to put himself in the title talks once again, and he has spoken as much about a potential rematch with Poatan, or facing any contender for the title Dana White can put in front of him. The one issue he has to face first is the fact that he was not preparing to face Guskov who can take him by surprise, and that everything is possible when you have a fight on short notice. With that in mind, we still think that Ankalaev takes this one home. The bookies think the same as he opened as an -535 favorite, while Bogdan Guskov is an +400 underdog. 

Steve Erceg vs. Ramazan Temirov

The co-main event on the 25th of July is going to be between Erceg and Temirov. Both are talented flyweights, and are looking to get themselves into the title talks. With a 13-4 score, Erceg has had a few setbacks as of late, and this is his chance to showcase his cardio and striking once again. Temirov stands at 19-3 and is a much more powerful striker who has some of the most aggressive strikes in the division. This fight will be a battle of styles, and even the bookmakers don’t know who to trust more. Both men are open at -110. It’s up to you to decide the winner. We would give a slight advantage to Temirov. 

Islam Dulatov vs. Wellington Turman

While not as filled with big name bouts as some of the previous UFC events in recent weeks and months, this Fight Night does have some peculiar fights. Islam Dulatov vs. Wellington Turman falls into that description. Dulatov comes from a strong boxing background, and that has helped him to take out the most opponents that stood in front of him, and his 21-1 record speaks for itself. While Turman is an experienced fighter, he will still endure this bout as an underdog. We think, deservedly so. The bookies agree, as Dulatov is opened as -1000 favourite, while Turman comes as +650 underdog. This is where you could make a prop bet, that Dulatov wins by a first round TKO. 

There you go, now, you’re set to bet on the UFC, even if it is your first time. We’ve explained the odds, gave you available betting markets, and even made a few predictions.