Hype Trains and Betting Slumps: Fighters Who Fool the Bookies
Hype is a natural component of professional sports. When a new contender enters a sport, the lack of a track record fuels speculation among fans.
This is especially true for combat sports, such as MMA, judo, boxing, and others. When a new fighter joins the UFC, fans quickly start hyperanalyzing their strengths and weaknesses to get a feel of what’s to come. For example, fans will discuss fighting style, stature, mentality, and other vital aspects that contribute to a fighter’s success.
However, this does not mean that this hype will ever materialize into tangible success. Nothing is guaranteed in the world of fighting sports.
Punters often take advantage of the mismatch between the bookmakers’ estimates and their preconceived notions. For instance, if a punter thinks that a particular fighter is not all they are hyped up to be, they are likely to bet against them and win a significant amount of money by taking advantage of a lack of performance track record.
The first time a fighter fails to live up to the hype, the betting markets are rattled. However, they soon adjust their expectations, and the odds follow down soon enough.
The Pitfall of the Hype Train
Major bookies, such as legacy online betting platforms, crypto sportsbooks, and brands like William Hill casino sister sites, and other platforms, typically have the liquidity to manage such upsets.
Some of the most speculative punters often bet on the underdog, specifically when the majority of fans and analysts are heavily favoring another fighter.
This contrarian approach is a high-risk, high-reward strategy that can net a significant amount of money in winnings when successful.
When fans are overly optimistic about a particular result, the odds become heavily slanted in the favorite, which can have a groupthink effect on every new punter. In some cases, short odds alone sway the decisions of punters who view the event as a low-risk “investment”.
Sean O’Malley VS Marlon Vera (UFC 252)
A good example of a major upset in fighting sports is the UFC 252 card, which saw Sean O’Malley face off against Marlon Vera.
O’Malley was the heavy favorite to win the fight, with odds of -300 (1.33) against Vera’s +250 (3.50). Sean O’Malley had the marketing behind him, the hype, the praise from Dana White. Most fans were expecting an easy win for O’Malley. However, Vera proved to be a formidable opponent and ultimately won with a technical knockout at 4:40.
This result came as a shock to many UFC fans and proved that too much hype can work against the favorite and cause many punters to lose a lot of money.
Is the Hype Train Always Wrong?
While the history of fighting sports is rich with overhyped fighters turning out to be flukes, this does not mean that the hype is always unfounded. Successful MMA fighters, such as Khabib Nurmagomedov and Israel Adesanya, were hyped very early on. These fighters managed to prove their worth and achieve success where others failed miserably.
Hype is merely a byproduct of excitement. When fans get to watch a new fighter, they want to dissect everything about them. This is how fans are created. Some who hype up a fighter will become long-term supporters, while others will be skeptical and criticize them as soon as they find a single reason.
Fandom is a complicated phenomenon, and fighting sports are not immune to overly emotional sentiment, groupthink, and confirmation bias. When a hyped fighter wins a fight, fans confirm that they were right about being excited. When the fighter loses, doubters jump on the occasion to criticize both the fighter and their fans for overhyping them.
How to Spot the Next Overhyped Fighter
While accurately spotting an overhyped fighter can be easier said than done, several key distinctions exist between one-time flukes and potential legends of the sport.
Here are some notable features of an overrated and overhyped fighter that astute viewers can spot:
- Ambiguous stamina – Can the fighter last three to five rounds? If their cardio is not particularly strong, this is a bad sign
- Can they grapple? – Fighters who rely on striking can struggle against strong wrestlers
- If they avoid certain opponents, this may be a sign of overly cautious behavior
- Too much media saturation and attention can be mentally draining and create an inflated self-image
- A padded record against fighters with the same style can be a red flag and indicate a comfort zone for the fighter
These factors can prolong the success of a fighter, especially if they are dodging tougher opponents, and fans are quick to point out such behavior. Overhyped fighters often try to maintain their time in the spotlight for as long as possible, until their inevitable downfall.