For many in the Mixed Martial Arts bubble, the mere thought of a rematch between Michael Bisping and Dan Henderson was a sure fire way of being laughed at. It was as if it was never going to happen, but with UFC 204 upon us, the fight is actually going to happen. And for many, some extra cash will be made because of it.
Looking at the main event between middleweight champion Michael Bisping and challenger Dan Henderson, it’s understandable why some of the betting lines are currently set the way they are. But upon further examination, perhaps some solid payouts can also be attained.
Bisping is the favorite in this fight at -235 while Hendo is the underdog at +215. Right off the bat, based on their first fight, that number next to Dan’s name is seriously one to jump on.
But, times have changed and a few intriguing factors can easily have you sway towards the various props that are favoring the champ.
There is a significant age gap between the two. As strange as it sounds, Michael, at age 37, has a massive “youth advantage” over the 46 year old challenger. Bisping is on a four fight win streak, with his last two victories over Anderson Silva and Luke Rockhold. Three of those four victories went the distance and only the win over Rockhold was a finish … and that was in the first round.
He’s only been finished three times in 36 fights. Once via KO (to Hendo), once via TKO to TRT Belfort and one via submission to Rockhold. Chances are, if he’s going to lose, it will be via decision. Once again, that +215 on Hendo looks pretty good. And if you believe history will repeat itself, you can get Dan via TKO/KO for as high as +300. But, there are sites out there listing Henderson to win via decision at a whopping +1250.
Mind you, that can easily be considered fool’s gold, as Dan hasn’t won a decision since that epic tussle with Shogun Rua at UFC 139, way back in November of 2011.
The current problem is picking Bisping to win by some sort of stoppage. You can find him on some sites at +110 to win via TKO/KO. Everything else is minus money or a tad astronomical. Case and point: +2000 for Michael to win via submission.
While it’s easy for all of us to assume this one will not go the full 25 minutes, I personally would not be surprised if it doesn't. Michael has shown a penchant for always finishing strong and I have no problem believing he could lose two rounds to Dan, and pull off three, to convince the judges he won the fight … and remember … this one is taking place in Michael’s backyard. And if the judges do award him the fight, it would pay you +400.
This bout also could have some interesting surprises … or should I say finishes? Especially in the co-main event between Vitor Belfort and Gegard Mousasi.
When you think Vitor Belfort, you think explosive power and knockout ability. Then again, that’s if you’ve been watching him since the beginning of his career. The reality is that Vitor’s body and brain are showing his MMA mileage. Add to the fact this bout is not taking place in Brazil and that he has lost two of his last three tilts via TKO, the favorite Gegard Mousasi (-300) to win via TKO/KO will pay you +100. I could see why many folks would jump on that number.
What I can’t see people jumping on is Belfort via TKO/KO at +450 or Belfort via submission at +2000. As crazy as it sounds, Vitor by tapout would not surprise me one bit in this fight. At this stage in his career, I wonder aloud if it’s a good idea for him to stand and trade with Mousasi. Perhaps the better strategy would be to try and take him down to the mat and use his underappreciated submission skills to pull off a “w”.
As for the rest of the card, there are a few other fun bets you may want to consider:
OSP via TKO/KO (+140)
Jimi Manuwas via TKO/KO (+240)
Daniel Omielanczuk wins by TKO/KO (+420)
Mirsad Bektic via TKO/KO (+200)
Brad Pickett via TKO/KO (+1015)
Mike Perry via TKO/KO (+230)
Leonardo Santos via submission (+600)
Feel free to share your thoughts on any props that you like and the theories behind them. Hit me up anytime here or via social media via the handle @ShowdownJoe.