Showdown Joe: UFC 202's Value Bets


In what many are considering to be a potential pay-per-view record breaker for the Ultimate Fighting Championships, UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 promises not only some exceptional bouts in the octagon, but for the wagering public, some interesting value across the betting lines.

Right off the bat, there’s the main event rematch between Nick Diaz and Conor McGregor. History has already proven that Diaz can defeat McGregor. And when he did, it was on 10 days notice. This time he’s had a full training camp yet money that’s come in thus far has him as the underdog. It wouldn’t be a bad bet to take Diaz at +2.10 on some sites.

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I believe it was an oddity that their first bout didn’t go past round two. I believe this one will actually go into round three, if not the distance. At +2.10 for the bout to go Over 2 ½ rounds, why not, right?

Now, if you are averse to wagering risk and believe in the predictions laid out by “Mystic Mac”, then his second round KO would pay you 6 to 1.

And seeing as we’ve already seen Nate submit Conor via rear naked choke, if you believe he will win by submission again, you’ll get 3 to 1 on most sites. Not bad at all.

Moving on to the co-main event between Anthony Johnson and Glover Teixeira, most fanatics are not predicting this one will go the distance. Someone is going to sleep. And if you subscribe to that theory, you’ll only get +1.69 on “Rumble”. For Glover, you actually get +9.44.

The funny thing about the numbers is that they are leaning heavily towards AJ winning by knockout, but if Teixeira can avoid the big punch(es) and pull off the victory, perhaps that big +9.44 number is stating he basically has no chance at knocking out or TKO’ing his opponent.

But, if he’s going to win, it will likely be by submission at +5.25 or by decision at +2.65. One thing that pops out to me is that Glover has only been knocked out once: fourteen (14) years ago, in his pro debut which goes way back to June of 2002. Food for thought my friends.

There are many other intriguing bets one could make on this UFC 202 card, so here’s a few other ones that have caught my eye:

Donald Cerrone by TKO/KO: +6.35

Donald Cerrone by Submission: +4.35

Rick Story to win: +2.45

UFC vet Tim Means has been out for nine months … his opponent, Sabah Homasi competed just two weeks ago at Titan FC, and has fought twice in 2016. Pick the newcomer, and it pays you +4.25.

Undefeated bantamweight Cody Garbrandt is a massive favourite his fight vs. Takeya Mizugaki. All the hype around him has driven the number down. Takeya, has nearly had four times the amount of fights than his American counterpart and has a laundry list of elite talent that he’s competed against and defeated. The Japanese veteran pays +5.50.

For all we know, none of these bets will come through but as we’ve seen in the past, the MMA Gods do have a sense of humour, one the sportsbooks often do not find funny. But what’s truly fun, is putting a few bucks down, or even a gentlemen’s bet with some pals to see who will have bragging rights the next day at the MMA Water Cooler.

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