With the UFC set for their latest event in Portland, Oregon, why not take a look at some of the fun bets we can consider at UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson.
In the main event, we will see John Dodson (-120) take on John Lineker (+110). The lines are obviously telling us this should be a close bout with “The Magician” the slight favourite. Personally, I’m not sure I agree with the number.
I respect the fact that Lineker is a brawler and any time, he can end the fight with a monstrous punch, but generally speaking, it’s versus fighters who potentially get suckered into his stand-and-bang, kill or be killed slugfest. I don’t believe Dodson will fall into this trap.
If you like Lineker to repeat what he did in his last bout vs. Michael MacDonald, then you’ll get +203 on your prediction, but I’m thinking Dodson will be patient and pounce when he has to.
For starters I like the -120 on John. I also like him to finish this fight via TKO/KO (+270) or via submission (+586), but the ladder is riskier, seeing as he hasn’t locked in a submission since joining the UFC. So, if you aren’t sure which one to choose - yet - you don’t believe the fight will go the distance (remember … this one is scheduled for five rounds), you can get Dodson at +174 to win before the final bell.
In the co-main event, Will Brooks (-295) is a heavier favorite over his opponent Alex Oliveira (+265).
The number is a handsome one though and it appears the sharp money is coming in from the respect (and hype) over Will’s resume vs. that of Alex’s. Make no mistake about it: I’m leaning towards Brooks in this fight but I’m not convinced he can finish Oliveira.
Oliveira has only been defeated three times: twice by submission and once via decision. Both of those submission losses have occurred inside the octagon. The first was via armbar to Gilbert Burns and the other via triangle choke to Donald Cerrone.
The last time Brooks submitted an opponent was October 2011, a stretch of nearly 5 years. When he does finish his opponents, it’s with his fists. Considering Oliveira has never been TKO’d or knocked out, it makes the following props less desirable.
But, considering Will is such a heavy favorite, I personally look at the big numbers and wonder if they are worth putting some money down … for fun. Brooks to win via TKO/KO will pay you +670 while Brooks via submission is a cool and crisp +435.
There are plenty of other bouts on this card with plenty of props that can have exceptional payouts but the one other tilt that has caught my eye is way down on the Fight Pass prelims: Nate Marquardt (+170) vs. Tamdan McCrory (-185).
Age, height and reach favors McCrory. Experience may favor Marquardt but one thing you’ve always heard me talk about on the Fightful podcasts is the MMA mileage I believe fighters incur over the years. And Nate has endured his fair share. He made his professional debut in April of 1999. Over seventeen years later, he has competed in 52 fights.
At age 29, Tamdan has competed in 18 professional bouts but also stepped away from the game for over 5 years, between August of 2009 and September of 2014. He has taken far less abuse over his career, so if he can take this fight past the seven minute mark, he should be able to take over.
He may not need to, provided he can take advantage of his four inch reach advantage. If he can do so, he be able to end this one early … and I believe if Marquardt is going to win this one, it will be early as well and if so, perhaps with his striking acumen. If you favor Nate via TKO/KO, you’ll get a pretty good +350 on your money.
If there’s going to be a finish in this bout, I’m thinking it will be Tamdan who will pull it off. I’m liking the +250 on a McCrory win via TKO/Ko or +260 on a “Barn Cat” submission.
What are you thoughts? Agree or Disagree on some of these fun bet? Have some of your own? I’m interested in your thoughts. Hit me up on social media at @ShowdownJoe.