With the Ultimate Fighting Championship set to return to their birthplace a variety of match-ups in Denver could see you put some serious coin in your pocket. But like many wagering theories, with no risk, there is no reward … or is there?
UFC on Fox: Shevchenko vs. Peña will see a pivotal women’s bantamweight bout in the main event, as Valentina Schevchenko (-150) will be taking on Julianna Pena (+150). This is a match-up that is as old school as it gets … a style vs. style beauty is what many are calling it.
Schevchenko is labeled as the better striker here, while Peña is the grappler with brutal ground and pound. Depending on which fighter and style you think will prevail here, you have some great options in Valentina via T/KO at +460 or Peña via submission at +561. And with the Denver altitude potentially coming into play here, hedging this one may also be a good idea.
In the co-main event, Donald Cerrone (-155) will take on Jorge Masvidal (+135). The public is likely driving Cerrone away from making these odds closer than they should be while the sharp bettors are keeping it close, by putting coin on Masvidal.
At +135, Masvidal could be a bargain, but not as good as the +700 you can get on him to win via T/KO. Don’t get yourself … he can do it. His striking is crisp and precise, but alas, you can also get Cerrone with a T/KO at +485 as well as a Cowboy victory by submission at +600. I do find it intriguing that the lines are telling us that there’s a better chance that Donald will get a submission than Jorge will get a T/KO. And I’m wavering as to whether I agree or not.
The heavyweight bout on the main card will see former UFC Heavyweight Champion Andrei Arlovski (+325) take on the heavily favored (no pun intended) Francis Ngannou, who at the time of this writing sits at a cozy -400.
What this means to most, is that Arlovski is going to get finished and believe it or not, if you want to put money down on an Ngannou T/KO, you are not getting much value. It currently sits at -210. The real value in an Ngannou T/KO sits on whether you believe the crafty veteran in Arlovski can survive round one, but succumb in round two or three. If this happens, and it’s a massive “if”, you can get Francis via any finish in round two at +475 or in round three at +975.
A few other fun bets that have caught my eye include:
Alex Caceres (+130) straight up over Jason Knight.
Sam Alvey via T/KO (+135) over Nate Marquardt.
On the flip side, if Nate can get it down to the ground, a +700 for a submission seems tempting.
Raphael Assuncao via any finish over Aljamain Sterling currently sits at +355
This UFC event is flying under the radar for many and it’s these types of events that cansee some serious profit returned on your investment.
As always, I’m always up for reading your picks and why you feel one fighter will defeat another. If you want to share, feel free to hit me up on social media anytime, using @ShowdownJoe.