While European UFC fans are glad they have a show on their own turf, taking place at a reasonable time, fans on the other side of the planet appear to be sleeping on the UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson card. Except the bettors. They know making money sleeps for no one.
The card is littered with some excellent value, but one has to dig to find out. While nothing is guaranteed, with some risk, we can be rewarded nicely on a Saturday afternoon (here). Let’s take a look at what could prove to be some nice payouts.
In Saturday’s main event, we have light heavyweight Jimi Manuwa (-150) taking on Corey Anderson (+130). The lines are telling us this a fairly even matchup, although the edge is skewed towards Manuwa. With any even matchup, I like to look at the ‘Fight goes to a decision” odds, and this one has it at +215. There’s some value right there.
But if there’s going to be a finish, I’m personally leaning towards the favorite, Manuwa and not via submission, but rather, via T/KO. If you agree, you can get that prop for +110.
In the co-main event, we have welterweight Gunnar Nelson (-360) listed as a heavy favorite vs. Alan Jouban (+300). Right off the bat, putting a few bucks on Jouban would not be a bad idea. He can pull off a win here, but, would need to execute a methodical stick and move strategy. He must stay away from Gunnar.
But the book on Nelson is simple. He closes range very well, gets his takedowns and works his submission game beautifully. With him being such a massive favorite, and being a submission wizard, we have to look at the submission prop carefully.
Unfortunately, at the time of this writing, less than 24 hours before the bout, I am unable to find a site the lists the prop. The only prop available on this bout is the over/under at 1 ½ rounds. Will it go over that amount? I believe so, but at -200, no thanks. If you believe it will end fairly early, you can get +170 on your wager.
The only other bout on this card that lists a few different options is the lightweight prelim tilt between Joseph Duffy (-680) and Reza Madadi (+490). Yes, I know you read those lines twice. Duffy is the biggest favorite on this card. With that being said, we know what to look for here: Duffy by T/KO.
You aren’t getting much (+120), but it’s a whole lot better than putting money on Duffy straight up. Nobody likes to lose money, but if you’re going to lose a few bucks, why not do so knowing you have a bigger profit if you actually do win?
Taking a look at the rest of the card, all we have are straight up wagers to consider. Here’s a few I’m thinking could be worth your while:
Brad Pickett (-120) over Marlon Vera (+100). Unless you agree with Frank Trigg on Thursday’s Fightful MMA Podcast: he’s taking Vera in this one.
Makwan Amirkhani (-130) over Arnold Allen (+110) is an ok option. Not the greatest, but don’t be shy on Allen. Why? Amirkhani may have put too much pressure on himself, stating the other day that he won’t fight for the UFC again unless they book an event in Finland. Was it a joke? Did he tick the UFC off? Pay attention to this silliness, believe me.
Also, fairly low on the prelims is welterweight Vicente Luque (-160) vs. Leon Edwards (+140). Pay attention to Luque, as he is somewhat under appreciated at the moment and has some serious upside in the UFC. He’s on a four fight win streak, all of them finishes. Edwards is a bad man, but I believe Luque is a bad matchup for him.
What are your thoughts? Agree or disagree? Have some fun bets of your own? Share them with me via social media anytime: @ShowdownJoe on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.