he Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to high altitude this weekend as UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno is set to go down on at the Arena Cuidad de Mexico. It will be headlined by flyweight tilt which has title implications. But that’s just one part of the excitement; the other is the fun bets we can take advantage of for this scrap, as well as others on the rest of the card.
Main Event: Flyweight Sergio Pettis (+150) vs. Brandon Moreno (-170)
In looking at this matchup, the hype is certainly around the bigger name Pettis. But the smart bettors are keeping this line in check. Moreno at -170 seems to be a difficult one to place coin on. On the flipside, taking Pettis straight up at +150 does not seem like a fun bet to me. If anything, I’m paying close attention to the Moreno submission prop in this fight. It currently sits at +200. Why not right?
Co-Main Event: Strawweight Randa Markos (+145) vs. Alexa Grasso (-165)
Grasso is the hometown fav here and if Markos cardio is not on point (due to the high altitude), don’t be surprised if Alexa scores a shocking T/KO here (+510). But her Canadian counterpart is as blue collar as they come, so if she outworks her opponent, you can get her via decision at +245.
Welterweights: Alan Jouban (-170) vs. Niko Price (+150)
My ‘Holy Smokes’ co-host Sean Ross Sapp and I broke this one down briefly on the podcast, but the more I think about it, the more that this one has ‘fight of the night’ written all over it. But, I will be surprised if this one goes the distance. One of these guys will likely get a finish. If you think Jouban will, you can get him via any finish at +165. But even better is the same fun bet on Price for +205.
Middleweights: Sam Alvey (-135) vs. Rashad Evans (+115)
This bout has me conflicted as the old school guy in me wishes to see the vintage Rashad Evans compete, but the reality is this: he’s 37 years old, and seven years removed from the days he was knocking out the Chuck Liddell’s and Forest Griffin’s.
Alvey hits pretty damn hard and Rashad needs to be careful here. I’m not opposed to taking Alvey via T/KO at +250 but the way these two guys stack up, I’m thinking it will go the full 15 mins. And strangely enough, despite Evans being the underdog here, the two fun bets for either guy winning a decision is skewed towards the former UFC champ at +178. Makes sense to me, as he is considered more of a worker than Alvey, who loves the counter attacking game.
Middleweights: Brad Scott (+215) vs. Jack Hermansson (-255)
It goes without saying that when you see odds of this nature, the theory is that the favourite is likely going to end the fight. And to wit, for this fight, I am buying into this analogy. In 18 pro fights, Hermansson has finished 15 opponents - nine with his striking - so look for him to tee off early and often. If you agree, you can get the T/KO finish for +250.
Flyweights: Dustin Ortiz (-210) vs. Hector Sandoval (+175)
In closing, we have a flyweight fight that quite frankly has most everyone scratching their heads.
To many, Ortiz simply has not lived up to what they thought his true potential could have and should have been while in Sandoval, we have an exciting fighter who strangely has a low finishing rate. But this fight is happening in Mexico City. Which could mean fatigue. And fatigue causes errors. And errors mean potential finishes. And yes, finishes means FUN BETS. So, with that being said, Ortiz via T/KO pays a whopping +805, while a Sandoval submission pays an even crazier +1160. Did I mention Hector trains at Team Alpha Male? Where guillotines are unleashed all day, every day?
How about yourself? Any fun bets you see on this card that I missed? Leave your thoughts in the comments below or hit me up on social media anytime: @showdownjoe
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