As I sit here in Tokyo, studying the fighters and bouts I will be calling for Rizin’s New Year’s Eve show, there is still a UFC show to dissect, filled with exceptional bouts and even better betting props. If all goes well, I will be able to close of 2016 with an overload of MMA that will likely still not saturate my hunger for this amazing sport.
The UFC show is closing off the year in spectacular fashion, with one of it’s top stars returning to action. Ronda Rousey will be looking to reclaim championship glory as she faces off against current Queenpin, Amanda Nunes.
The champ is currently listed at +130 and to be honest, that right there is an offer one should accept. There is a lot of hype around Rousey’s comeback and it is driving the money towards the American, with the books trying to even it all out, by offering a bit more enticement on the champ.
Can Rousey pull off the victory? Of course she can. If you think it will be by one of her near patented submissions, you’ll get +125 on your money. Not bad, but if you want real value, I would also consider, Nunes by submission at +715 as well as a Nunes T/KO at +175 (which originally opened at +950). That’s an impressive drop right there and I’m sure many of you sharp bettors know why.
In the co-main event, I am sincerely puzzled by the numbers. Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz is currently sitting at -210, the favorite over challenger Cody Garbrandt, who is hovering at +190.
Look, I’ve made my fair share of incorrect assessments, but I sincerely believe these odds are simply too close to one another. Give me this fight within a year, and the odds should look like this. Give me the same bout in 3 years, and Cody will likely be the signficant favorite, but right now, I think “The Dominator” is on another level.
If you believe Cody will do what he does best and score himself a T/KO, you can get the challenger at +245. And believe it or not, this is a number that continues to drop. But if you think Cruz, whose power many often question (I personally disagree) is set to score his own T/KO finish, you can get him at +495 right now. In fact, it’s a number that is trending up, so you may be able to get it over +500 by the day’s end, or early am.
Looking at the rest of this card, there is an abundance of value propositions that should have many salivating. While we cannot predict the future, it’s a whole lot of fun to try … because when you’re right, it not only feels great, but puts some nice coin in her pockets.
Over the next two days, here are a few that I will be paying close attention to:
John Lineker via T/KO over TJ Dillashaw: +530
TJ Dillashaw wins via decision: -111 (not great value, but a serious prop to consider)
Neil Magny via T/KO over Johny Hendricks: +510
Louis Smolka over Ray Borg: -130
Louis Smolka via submission: +465
Louis Smolka via T/KO: +850
Tim Means via T/KO over Alex Oliveira: +350
And heck, on the flip side, Alex Oliveira via T/KO over Tim Means: +550
There are so many variables to consider when making props, but if you’re doing it just for fun, enjoy it. You don’t need to put up a lot of money to make a more than fair return. At these odds, hitting just one of them will put a smile on your face.
Here’s hoping you hit them all and end 2016 with some finanical success.
View the discussion thread.